My seat seat is still not warm enough ...

Today is Election Day for the Sarawak State in which the peoples of Sarawak will come out to vote for their representatives. Some say that BN will win but not by a two-third majority while others say that PKR will form the State government with a simple majority. I personally won't hazard a guess as to who will win the election. Mahmud Taib, the Chief Minister, has had severe criticisms for his performance and, more damaging, was for the wealth that he, his family, and cronies had amassed during his 30 years in power. He is personally reputed to own huge swathes of land in Sarawak, and billions of USD in properties and cash overseas. Mahathir had obliquely mentioned that, at one time, the chief minister of Trengganu lost his seat and the whole state to the opposition PAS because of his obstinacy to be in the running in spite of having been at the helm of power for the last 25 years. In the end , he was unceremoniously kicked out of office.

Update Sunday 27/04/2011: DAP claimed victory while Anwar took flight to US and PAS lost all the seats it contested. DAP has doubled its number of seats, winning in urban areas where Chinese is the majority. The biggest loser is SUPP where even the 5-term Dr George Chen lost his seat to a young DAP politician. If the State election is any indication of the swing of the electorate to the opposition, then Najib has to be wary of the General Election. Would he announce it to be held in June or July this year or postpone it to 2013 when the current term expires.

Before the election, Taib Mahmud has announced that he would name his successor, resign as Chief Minister, and then retire from politics. Let's see whether he keeps his word or merely uttering nonsense.

Which brings me to the date of the next general election. Notwithstanding the results of the recently-concluded state election in Sarawak, I am speculating that Najib will not announce it to be in June or July 2011 as currently rumoured by a lot of people. The Sarawak polls indicated that urban areas are more popular with DAP than with BN. This has been proved time and time again with every general election under different Prime Ministers that in urban areas where Chinese population predominates, BN parties have seldom won. Najib will not wait till the ruling party terms expire in 2013 either since , willy nilly, he would be forced to dissolve Parliament and call for a general election.

He still has much to do in order for BN to win resoundingly like in 2004 when BN garnered a record number of seats. He would, I believe, announce it when he's absolutely sure that the Anwar factor disappeared altogether. Announcing it too early, such as in mid 2011, would be premature and it looked as though he's trying to take advantage for what he perceives as his increased popularity. No, I believe Najib will do as much as he could by introducing popular programs and policies and/or taking firm grips on the issues of corruption in government institutions - issues that would be accepted by most people by the end of this year so that he could announce the general election date sometime to be held in March 2012. What more better for BN to win, and win handsomely, in the March 2012 election in order to wipe out its humiliation in the last general election in March 2008. Najib will then be at the peak of power in Malaysia.

Expatriate Malaysians ....

The other day Najib was proposing to impose a flat 15 % tax on income to those who come back to Malaysia from where they are working overseas. If memory serves me right (for I have to check the data again) that some 500,000 Malaysians are now working overseas, of which some 400,000 are working in "overseas" Singapore. Najib reckons that the 15 % flat tax rate is sufficient incentive to lure the "expatriate" Malaysians back. I presume, Najib was thinking of those Malaysians working in Singapore. But then on checking Singapore's income tax rate for individuals, who are non-resident of Singapore, the maximum tax rate applied is 15 %. As in Malaysia, the tax rate is progressive from 0%. The only difference is that for non-residence, the tax rate is on gross income, not taxable income (i.e. income after deductions in relief, epf, etc). So, do you think those 400,000 expats that work in Singapore will be interested to come back and work here.

Non-Malay "expats" are having it so good that they won't come back to work here especially if their perception of the current government policy is, they believe, not friendly to them. They would rather stay in Singapore as most of them are doing, or Australia where a great number have acquired permanent resident status or even citizenships, or in Canada, Britain, and America. As for the Malays, many are working overseas but eventually they will come back since Malaysia is their home and their roots are here. As for me, I say to hell with them and never allow them to come back since the Chinese especially are a migrating race, never satisfied to be in one country, always looking for the grass that's greener in other countries. It for this reason, that the most widely spread ethnic group in the world is the Chinese. I bet there's no country in the world that hasn't a Chinese population.

How would Najib then solve this problem ? If he's asking me how to go about it, I am ready to provide him a solution. First of all, let's talk about the 400,000 and the Malaysian diaspora elsewhere other than in Singapore. These people who claim themselves as "Malaysians" earn money in the countries where they work and therefore contribute to these countries in the form of tax and other non tangible things. Contribution to Malaysia is zero. Therefore, why would Malaysia need them ? Malaysia is better off without them than with them. Secondly, some of them, if not most of them, have a tendency to condemn Malaysia, against the government, against its policies, and above all against the Malays and other Bumiputra, telling the citizens of those countries that in Malaysia they are marginalised to the extent that they have no opportunities for involvement in politics, in business, in freedom of expression, in practising their religious beliefs, and many other democratic values, in order to gain the sympathies of their acquaintances in the developed countries. Ask Lee Kuan Yew this. The Malaysian government should take cognizant of this fact.

My solution would be for the present government to take a tough stand, which is, among other things, to revoke the citizenship of these people, to those people who have deliberately stayed out of Malaysia for years and years, and to those who have acquired permanent resident status in other countries. Those who stayed out of the country without reasonable excuse should be treated as persona non grata and forbidden to enter Malaysia. Then let's see what happens ?

Is your name Rumpelstiltskin ...

Ever hear of the fairy tale about the miller's daughter who had promised to give her first born child to the little Elf who had helped her in spinning straws into gold and prompting a grateful king to take her for a wife - to become his queen in fact.

When a baby was born, and when the Elf appeared to claim his prize, the queen refused to give up her child. The angry Elf ranted and cursed at the queen; but in spite of being double-crossed, the kind-hearted Elf gave the queen a last chance - that if the queen could guess his name, then the Elf was willing to forego his claim on the baby.

For days and nights, the exasperated queen was at her wit's end as to how to end her misery, for how could she tell anyone about her predicament, least of all to the king who would immediately behead her if he found out that his wife was having a secret liason with a man - a diminutive, ugly Elf at that.

But luck, as fairy tales go, was on her side.

One night, a loyal maid of the queen chanced to spy on the Elf dancing around a bonfire (like Kevin Costner in Dances With Wolves) and singing with glee on how he would soon have a child, ending the singing with his name of Rumpelstiltskin, for he reckoned that no one, much less so the queen, could never guess such a unique, ugly name of Rumpelstiltskin. The loyal maid at once related to the queen what she had witnessed.

The next day, the Elf appeared in a puff of smoke before the queen. She was alone in her chamber of course. The Elf was sure that at last he could get his prize. But the queen had to be cute and had to play a little game with the Elf. Instead of saying straight away the name of the Elf, she toyed with the poor Elf saying whether his name was Baron Viktor Frankenstein, to which the Elf said no. Or his name was Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart, to which the Elf again said no.

Then finally, triumphantly, and imperiously, the queen, with her nose in the air and looking down on the poor Elf, smugly said "Is your name Rumpelstiltskin ?" Thereupon, absolutely livid with anger, the Elf pulled and tore up his hair and stamped his feet furiously on the floor and, in a flash and smoke, disappeared never to disturb the queen again. From then on, the miller's daughter and the king lived happily ever after.

Thus, it came to pass that, in the last couple of weeks or so, we, the Malaysian public, are treated to a kind of fairy tale. Is it him or is it his ringer ? One fellow said that it was him since he was there with him. Some say, Lingam style, that it looks like him, smiles like him, moves and gestures like him but it's not necessarily him. Some say that it's definitely not him, not in a million years. The Police even go to the extent to say that they have identified him but are trying to be cute, just like the miller's daughter, by not telling who the bloody hell is the guy in the video ! They are still waiting, and waiting and waiting for what ? Are they waiting to announce to the country for maximum impact on the public's sentiment ? Hoping for him to stamp his feet on the ground, to tear up his hair in anger and despair, then to disappear forever, never again to disturb the Malaysian political scene, so that we can live happily ever after.

And then, there's this matter of the Omega watch. We were told in the media that an Omega watch belonging to Anwar was accidentally left there in the room. The watch was later found by Anwar's friend who gave it to the Police as future evidence. Anwar claimed that he had not lost the watch but it was kept at home by his wife. There was a lot of media speculation as to whom the watch belonged. If it's later proven that the watch belonged to Anwar, then this piece of evidence merely strengthened the case of Anwar being the person who was in the room with the prostitute from China. After days and days of Police investigation, we were now told that the Omega watch had become irrelevant. The Police should have said this in the first place. My take on this was that, during investigation, the Police could not ascertain the watch being registered to Anwar. For all we know, the watch's serial number did not match the numbers in the Omega register, leading us to the conclusion that the watch could have been bought from a watch dealer anywhere overseas, or even from a pasar malam outlet. It's for this reason, that suddenly, we are now told that the Omega is unimportant to the case at hand. If the watch had been ascertained to have indeed belonged to Anwar or someone in his immediate family, then, I am sure, the Police, like the miller's daughter saying to the Elf, would say something cute, in that, all there was to know about the investigation, had been submitted to the Attorney-General and it's up to the AG to take it from there.

Catch me if you can ....

True to his character, Gaddafi is doing what he knows best - thumbing his nose at the West. When he got into trouble with his people, just like Zainal Abidin bin Ali and Hosni Mobarak with their own people, the Americans and the Europeans told everyone that Gaddafi deserved nothing but being kicked out of office, and what more better than being kicked out of office by his very own countrymen. For years, those in the West really hated his guts, blaming him for, among other sins, being responsible for the Boeing 747 explosion at Lockerbie, and in their minds, if given a chance, they would like to grind Gaddafi's face to the ground.

Well, they are now given the chance ! NATO, that European organisation that was formed to serve as a deterrent to Soviet aggression during the Cold war, haughtily assumed that it didn't need the US to teach Gaddafi a lesson during his period of weakness. What happened was that, not only were NATO planes erroneously bombarding Libyan forces fighting against Gaddafi, but also they had apparently ran out of weapons and ideas on how to topple Gaddafi. Instead of helping the Libyan rebels, NATO command had unwittingly helped Gaddafi. NATO was just recently being reprimanded by both Britain and France for not doing enough because it seemed to have no idea as how to go about helping the Libyan people. The latest I heard was providing bullet-proof vests to the rebels. Ha, haa, haaa ...........

The truth is that NATO countries seems to be disorganised as who is going to pay more for their adventures in Libya. With US not actively participating, France, Britain, Belgium, Spain, Italy and the others are quarreling among themselves as who are going to pay for the expenses in missiles, bombs, fighter planes. They thought with a few missile attacks here and there in Libya, Gaddafi was likely to squirm in his shoes and quickly give up his power to the Libyan rebels. Not so, said him and his sons. NATO command had to step over their dead bodies first. Libya is not impoverished Tunisia or perpetually broke Egypt which had to rely on US for aid. Libya is rich in oil, and therefore had, over the years, built up sufficient weaponry to defend its sovereignity. Only arming the rebels with great quantities of heavy weaponry, tanks and missiles can they match Gaddafi's forces. As if NATO command doesn't know that.

But then, Britain and certainly France are not keen to send ground forces because it can be construed as attempts to invade and occupy Libya. Certainly, Russian and China would lodge strong protests with the United Nations. Britain and France, don't mind sending their fighters to take potshots at the Libyan army if they could be identified from the air. The workable solution, to me at least, is for those countries in the Arab league or Islamic Council to send their troops to help the Libyan rebels. At least, this won't be seen as an invasion by the "palefaces" from Europe since these are Arabs helping fellow Arabs from being massacred by Gaddafi. But, as usual, these Arabs are cowards or are at a loss as to what to do and want other people to do it. It's good that Obama does not want US to be involved in Libya because it is already heavily involved in Iraq and Afghanistan. Another option is for Ban Ki-Moon to send his forces under United Nations command and quickly resolve the conflict.

Update 02/05/2011 Monday: News has it that in the recent attack by NATO planes in Tripoli, Gaddafi's youngest son and three grandchildren were killed. These are innocent people killed in what the US used to say, an act of "collateral damage". When David Cameron was asked what his take was on this, he avoided by saying he would comment when he received confirmation.

Gaddafi would be crying his heart out when he sees his son and grand children dead before his eyes. The attack by NATO has now escalated to wanton destruction when it is supposed to be the destruction of Gaddafi's capability to make war. We now see NATO as being a disorganised body, incapable of distinguishing foes from friends.

Gaddafi should take vindictive attacks on NATO itself by initially sending a fighter jet to attack, say, the NATO headquarters in Brussels or at the very least simply attack Britain or France, targetting St Paul or the Eiffel Tower, and in reaction to the subsequent condemnation by London or Paris, reply to them that he didn't mean to attack them but is sorry for the collateral damage.

Update 21/06/2011 Teusday: Lately, we read about more "collateral damage" in Libya. More and more civilians including children are killed by Nato attacks on Gaddafi. When asked about this, Nato replied that it would look into it. So far, David Cameron, had not replied to the query on the death of Gaddafi's son and his 3 grandchildren, though 6 weeks ago, the British PM promised to comment upon confirmation. Another thing is why the bloody hell is Gaddafi not retaliating ! Surely his Air Force has sufficient jet fighters to engage in combat with Nato fighters or his ground defense has sufficient fire power to shoot down enemy planes. Instead, he allows them to attack him.

Pre-election bull ....

As usual, months before the US presidential election, would be presidential nominees from whatever party in US are talking tough as though they can deliver when they ultimately become presidents. Take the recent case of Donald Trump who wishes to be the next US President come the election in 2012. He is telling everybody that if the US is to protect countries such as Saudi Arabia or South Korea against aggression by their neighbours, then these countries ought to pay for it. True to his business mentality, he says that the US will not be providing such services for free.

I support him if, when he becomes US president, he withdraws his troops from Iraq, Afghanistan, Korea, Guam, Philipines or from any other country where US troops are stationed. [The negro called Barack Hussain Obama pledged the same thing in his inaugural address, but as everybody knows, there are still hordes of US troops in Iraq, in Afghanistan, in Guam, not to mention the Guantanama Bay prison which is still operating actively. Thank you ver much].

He then continues to say that if he becomes president, the price of crude oil would be USD 40-50 per barrel instead of it being in the order of triple digit. [Doesn't he seem to know that the price of crude oil is determined in Wall Street, by those commodity and hedge fund traders that speculate on oil prices, as they have been speculating on other commodities as well. It's not the Arabs, Donald ! And it's the oil companies, the Essos, the Shells, the Chevrons that are making the most money - not the Arabs].

As for China, he warns that no more would US tolerate China to manipulate its currency in order to gain an advantage in her exports to the US. He threatens a 25% punitive tariff on all imports from China to the US. [The trouble is, this donald duck, has still not realised that China pays its worker USD 0.80 cent per day of work while US pays its worker some USD 8.00 per hour of work. Is he not aware that it's the US that champions the WTO, telling everyone that the world economy is good for everybody if there's no tariff at all. ].

What it boils down to is that this donald duck is so ignorant of world affairs that I suggest he should stick to what he knows - that is running hotels, casinos, chasing women, and firing his staffs.

Update 21/06/2011 Teusday: Just the other day, Donald Trump says he's not running for President. Good.

With so much money, no wonder ...

The Malaysian EPF's plan to allocate GBP 1.0 billion to buy property is I think a good investment scheme especially when now the GBP is struggling at just about RM 5.00 to the Pound. To date, the EPF has apparently spent some GBP 485 million to buy 3 properties in London. The property is Whitefriars, located in Fleet street, which was acquired for GBP 148 million. Two previous purchases made by EPF in London were One Sheldon Square in Paddington Central for GBP 156 million and 40 Portman Square, near Oxford Street for GBP 180 million. To be sure, property prices in London will escalate in the long run. EPF has still a balance of about GBP 515 million to spend on properties, I hope, in London.

I write this trivia to remind me later to fall back on if only just to win argument with some of my friends.

What ails the Bank ? ....

The other day, in a snippet from a local media, I read of BNM's forex reserve which was stated as RM 344 billion, an amount that could sustain 8.4 months of imports and was 4.3 times the short term external debt. Today, I checked BNM's forex reserve as at 20/02/2011 which was given as USD 109,777.60 million or USD 109.8 billion for short. Not much really considering that China's forex reserve is USD 2.87 trillion and tiny Singapore's was more than twice that of BNM. The odd thing about BNM's forex reserve is that it seems never to go up in spite of Petronas churning billions and billions of USD in oil exports, what with oil prices that never seemed to go down. Somewhere in my blog, I had mentioned that BNM's forex had reached some USD 125 billion or thereabout and Singapore's reserve at about the same time was way above BNM's. While in the meantime, Singapore's reserve had gone up to more than twice (USD 230.8802 billion) that of BNM in USD terms, BNM's reserves was languishing in the order of 100 billion USD for years and years.

In my reckoning, the strength of a country's currency, among other things, is related to the the amount of the country's international reserves. At one time, China's Yuan was 8.11 to the USD when now it is 6.85. The Americans are complaining that even at the current China's exchange rate, it is not high enough. The Americans reckon that to be "fair", the Yuan's rate should be higher still say, to about 3.0 to 5.0 to the USD. [I personally don't care too much about the American complaints, because those predatory US financial terrorists in Wall Street are waiting for a chance to attack the Yuan the moment they see any signs of weaknesses].

Why I write this is because of what I watch a video on the "Inside Job" about the financial crisis that hit America, then Europe and finally the whole world in 2008. The narrator, actor Matt Damon of Bourne fame, stated that the crisis which culminated in 2008 actually started in 2000.

The traditional, time-honoured way of borrowing was for the borrower(individual or corporate body) to borrow from the lender(a bank or a financial institution) who charged an interest on the amount borrowed. The borrower then regularly paid the lender the principal amount and the interest by way of instalment over a period. It was a two party transaction - the borrower and the lender. The amount borrowed and thus the magnitude of the bank's business was limited to how much capital the bank had in the first place. If the bank had a capital of USD 1.0 million, then theoretically, the bank could only lend USD 1.0 million, although in practise, it would only lend part of it. Lending out more than USD 1.0 million would expose the bank to over-lending. In fact, if the bank had done this, it could only mean that it was misusing the money deposited by its clients such as those that were in fixed deposits, current and saving accounts and other savings instruments. In fact, this was a practise among banks until it became illegal by an act of law passed by the US Congress following the Great Depression of 1929.

Following that law (the Glass-Steagall Act 0f 1932/1933), a new type of banks emerged in the US called the "investment banks" which were separate from the the traditional "commercial" or "retail" banks that we all know. Among the requirements of the new Act was that no bank was allowed to use it's clientele's money to expand its business beyond the limit of its available capital and because of this, most banks in US were small. If the banks were big, it's because their capitals were big due to their shareholders being rich individuals or institutions. There were hundreds, if not thousands, of "commercial or retail" banks in America involved in such a narrow scope of activity of lending and taking deposits.

For decades since the Great Depression when prudence prevail, there were no bank problems such as a run on the banks or something similar. If there had been, its mostly due to mismanagement such as embezzlement perpetrated by the bank employees or by its decision makers. But this time it was different. The lender instead ...............He mentioned the problems with Iceland that went bankcrupt in 2008.

To continue and amend ...