The Malaysian Ringgit ...
Why does the MYR keep on weakening against most major and minor currencies. Since last year, I note that the MYR was "strengthening" against the USD. Its not that the MYR organically strengthened, but its because the USD was weakening against all major currencies and the MYR weakened slightly less against the non USD currency - hence the "strengthening effect". This was understandable because US has been bleeding white to finance its two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and to maintain its high living standards with money regurgitated from its busy printing presses. Further it spends money borrowed from its major trading partners and repay them with, as Iran says, paper money worth slightly more than a toilet paper.
Yet this toilet paper has increased in value compared to the MYR. With Malaysia having so much money in its forex reserve and with its balance of payment showing high positives year in and year out for the last many years, the MYR has in fact weakened against the Euro, the Pound, the S$, the Yen, the Swiss franc, the Yuan and HK $ and most other currencies, even the baht. Only against the lowly rupiah that the MYR maintains stability. Thailand with its coup and rioting and demostration since about two years ago managed to maintain a higher Baht/RM rate.
To which country can I visit where the MYR can go far. Certainly not to Europe where the MYR appears so small; nor to China or Japan, Korea, the Arab countries, even Singapore or Thailand. I thought maybe in Indonesia that the Malaysian Ringgit can go farther than it can in Malaysia. I am disappointed to find out that in Medan, the price of a 2-bedded room in a 2 star hotel is far more expensive than a similar one in a 3-star hotel in KL. So much for cheap hotels in Indonesia !
A sure sign that the MYR is weakening is inflation which is currently at 8.5 percent. Another sign is the price of property. Where an apartment that cost RM 300,000 some ten years ago is now at RM 3,000,000 and a double-storey terrace house that cost RM 150,000 is now advertised at no less than RM 750,000. It looks as though that, not only the MYR cannot go far in other countries, it cannot go far even in its own country.
I pity my poor uncle who regularly set aside part of his income for his retirement savings only to find out eventually that the accumulated savings become insufficient to buy a low-cost house.
The reason for the weakening of the MYR is maybe due to this. BNM's forex reserve has dropped to USD 122.6 billion from USD 125.1 billion two weeks ago. By any means, the reserve is reasonably high, being 9.6 months of import sustainability, its the short term external debt that has dropped to 4.3 times from a position of about 6.2 since I first blogged.