Friday, February 18, 2011

More woes in the Middle East ..

After Tunisia and Egypt, it is now Bahrain, Libya, Yemen, Algiers, perhaps followed by Morocco, and finally Saudi Arabia. Lately, we have seen protests in Bahrain, not only against its Prime Minister and but also now against its ruling royal family. The people there are simply fed up of how things are run in their countries, with those in power getting richer at the expense of those the populace who are hungry and angry.

In Bahrain, the minority Sunni that are in power are now finding it hard to appease the majority Shiite population (70% of Bahrain). Lately, 23 have died and about 10 times as many have been injured as a result of demonstration by the mostly Shiites. The funny thing is that both Sunni and Shiite are Muslims. Even the much respected Muammar Ghadaffi is now facing demonstrations against his government in Libya. Actually, there are more people dead in Benghazi than in any other Arab cities. The trouble is Ghadaffi is keeping a tight control on news emanating from Libya.

How a country with only about 6.5 million in population and 44 billion barrels of proven oil reserves having a mediocre GDP of USD 12,000, and with a third of its population living in poverty, I don't know why. With 95 % of its revenue reliant on oil and gas, Libya seems to be no better off than Turkey or Malaysia, when it should be comparable to Kuwait. Libya is the 12th top producer of crude oil and possesses unprospected reserves of crude oil to last for generations. It seems to me that Libya's oil wealth is not equitably spread to her people, or the wealth is slowly trickling down to them. No wonder, the people there are demonstrating like the Tunisians and the Egyptians. Latest news is that Benghazi, the eastern city of Libya, has fallen to the protesters or to those in opposition to Ghadaffi's regime. Will we see Libya split into West and East ?

Update 26/02/2011: This Muammar Gadaffi must be getting so desperate that he stoops so low to gain the sympathy of the West especially from the US. He thinks by saying that the protests that are going on in his country are the work of Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden, he expects sympathy and support from the Americans. Bull ! Terrorism, or Al Qaeda or Osama bin Ladin has absolutely nothing to do with it. After so many years of being anti-West, he is now grovelling at their feet to help him. Does he not know that the younger Libyans are getting sick of his regime or of him being its leader for 4 decades ?

Update 05/03/2011: Latest news on the woes in the Middle east is that Syrian opposition are demanding for reforms in Syria while in Yemen, Yemeni troops have just killed 4 demonstrators. President Ali Abdullah Salleh of Yemen was offerred a smooth exit from power by the protesting opposition and ulamas of Yemen. In Saudi Arabia, the Shias are protesting for equality, better opportunities for jobs from the kingdom that has the Sunnis as the majority. Jordan is now facing opposition protests calling for the King to be stripped off his powers. Yeah, it's all about people wanting to have more say in the government run by feudal autocrats, kings, and politicians.

More on this ....


Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Petronas new oil reserve ...

Is this the great oilfield discovery by Petronas that Tengku Razali mentioned sometime ago that, so large was the reseve, it may potentially adversely affect oil price in the future ? At least that's what he said (later denied by Petronas). 100 million barrels of recoverable oil (and 2.8 trillion standard cubic feet of gas) found off the Sarawak coast hardly merits a large discovery especially, if at 1 million barrels of daily extraction, theoretically, the new reserve would only last a 100 days or just about 3 months.

No, the magnitude of the discovery claimed by Tengku Razali was much, much more and it must be somewhere else.